MENAKAR KETAHANAN BANK SYARIAH TERHADAP GEJOLAK EKONOMI GLOBAL: ANALISIS EMPIRIS DENGAN REGRESI LINEAR BERGANDA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70367/arrasyiid.v3i1.25Keywords:
Perbankan syariah, ketahanan ekonomi, gejolak ekonomi global, profitabilitas, Return on Assets (ROA), harga minyak dunia, nilai tukar, manajemen risikoAbstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis ketahanan perbankan syariah Indonesia terhadap gejolak ekonomi global menggunakan pendekatan empiris kuantitatif. Data triwulanan periode 2019-2023 digunakan untuk menguji pengaruh Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU_ppp), harga minyak dunia, suku bunga The Fed, dan nilai tukar USD/IDR terhadap profitabilitas bank syariah (ROA). Metode regresi linear berganda dengan 20 observasi menunjukkan harga minyak dunia (β = 0,007, p = 0,003) dan nilai tukar rupiah (p = 0,013) berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap ROA, sementara GEPU_ppp dan FEDFUNDS tidak signifikan. Model regresi simultan signifikan (F = 7,967, p = 0,001) dengan Adjusted R² = 0,595. Temuan mengindikasikan ketahanan bank syariah Indonesia lebih sensitif terhadap gejolak harga komoditas dan nilai tukar dibandingkan ketidakpastian kebijakan global dan suku bunga internasional. Implikasinya, penguatan manajemen risiko komoditas dan nilai tukar menjadi krusial bagi industri perbankan syariah menghadapi ketidakstabilan ekonomi global.
References
Abdeljawad, I., Rashid, M., Alia, M. A., Qushtom, R., Irshaid, M., & Sahyouni, A. (2024). Cushion hypothesis and credit risk: Islamic versus conventional banks from the MENA region. PLoS ONE, 19(7 July), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0306901
AbdulGaniyy, A., & AbdulKareem, I. A. (2020). Islamic Banking and Global Financial Crises: A Review of Liquidity Risk Management. Islam Universalia: International Journal of Islamic Studies and Social Sciences, 2(1), 153–170. https://doi.org/10.56613/islam-universalia.v2i1.155
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The World Uncertainty Index. National Bureau of Economic Reseach. Cambridge.
Amin, M. F. Bin. (2022). Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Stock Prices on Bank’s Profitability: Evidence from Saudi Islamic Banks. International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance (IJIEF), 5(1), 31–58. https://doi.org/10.18196/ijief.v5i1.11835
Azmat, S., Azad, A. S. M. S., Ghaffar, H., Hayat, A., & Chazi, A. (2020). Conventional vs Islamic banking and macroeconomic risk: Impact on asset price bubbles. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 62(May), 101351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101351
Azmi, W., Hassan, M. K., Houston, R., & Karim, M. S. (2021). ESG activities and banking performance: International evidence from emerging economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 70, 101277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101277
Belkhaoui, S. (2025). Oil price fluctuations and economic growth–banking sector nexus: modeling for MENA countries. EuroMed Journal of Business, 20(1), 216–243. https://doi.org/10.1108/EMJB-03-2023-0079
Bilgin, M. H., Danisman, G. O., Demir, E., & Tarazi, A. (2021). Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking. Journal of Financial Stability, 56, 1–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100911
Chiad, F., & Gherbi, A. (2024). the Role of Islamic Banks in Promoting Economic Growth and Financial Stability: Evidence From Saudi Arabia. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 21(3), 357–369. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.21(3).2024.29
Esmaeil, J., Rjoub, H., & Wong, W. K. (2020). Do oil price shocks and other factors create bigger impacts on islamic banks than conventional banks? Energies, 13(12), 0–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13123106
Hanafi, R., Rohman, A., & Sutapa, S. (2022). Islamic Bank Resilience: Financial and Sharia Performance During Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia. Muqtasid: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 13(1), 18–30. https://doi.org/10.18326/muqtasid.v13i1.18-30
Hidayah, N., Zamilah, A., Rizal, S., & Jaharuddin, J. (2021). The Resilience of Sharia and Conventional Banks in Indonesia during the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis. Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah, 13(2), 209–228. https://doi.org/10.15408/aiq.v13i2.23964
Ishak, & Pribadhi, B. (2021). Determination Profitability of Islamic Banks with Exchange Rate as Moderating Variable. Journal of Islamic Economics and Social Science (JIESS). https://doi.org/10.22441/jiess.2021.v2i1.003
Jatmiko, W., Iqbal, A., & Ebrahim, M. S. (2024). On the Ethicality of Islamic Banks’ Business Model. British Journal of Management, 35(1), 115–136. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8551.12703
Junaidi, J. (2024). Islamic banks’ contribution to Indonesia districts’ economic growth and poverty alleviation. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 29(58), 294–308. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-06-2021-0097
Juvenal, L., & Petrella, I. (2024). Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle. Journal of International Economics, 150, 103913. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103913
Mubarok, F., Nugraha, D. P., & ... (2023). The resilience of Islamic banking efficiency in the face of the Covid-19 epidemic. Journal of Islamic …. Retrieved from https://journal.walisongo.ac.id/index.php/jiafr/article/view/13341
Naouar, A., Boulanouar, Z., & Grassa, R. (2024). Islamic banks and capital buffer behavior: A view from the Gulf cooperation council markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 83, 102257. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.PACFIN.2024.102257
Nouman, M., Hashim, M., Trifan, V. A., Spinu, A. E., Siddiqi, M. F., & Khan, F. U. (2022). Interest rate volatility and financing of Islamic banks. PLoS ONE, 17(7 July), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0268906
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). (2024). SIARAN PERS REFLEKSI 2024: PERBANKAN INDONESIA TETAP SOLID DAN MELANGKAH OPTIMIS DI TENGAH KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI GLOBAL. Retrieved from https://www.ojk.go.id/id/berita-dan-kegiatan/siaran-pers/Documents/Forms/AllItems.aspx?RootFolder=%2Fid%2Fberita-dan-kegiatan%2Fsiaran-pers%2FDocuments%2FPages%2FRefleksi-2024-Perbankan-Indonesia-Tetap-Solid-dan-Melangkah-Optimis-Di-Tengah-Ketidakpastian-
Rizal, R., Marlion, F. A., Pasrizal, H., & Anita, R. (2021). Internal and External Factors Effects towards Return on Assets in Indonesian Foreign Exchange Sharia Bank. Muqtasid: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 12(1), 49–62. https://doi.org/10.18326/muqtasid.v12i1.49-62
Safiullah, M. (2021). Financial stability efficiency of Islamic and conventional banks. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 68(May), 101587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101587
Saleem, A., Daragmeh, A., Zahid, R. M. A., & Sági, J. (2024). Financial intermediation through risk sharing vs non-risk sharing contracts, role of credit risk, and sustainable production: evidence from leading countries in Islamic finance. Environment, Development and Sustainability (Vol. 26). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03298-7
Šeho, M., Bacha, O. I., & Smolo, E. (2020). The effects of interest rate on Islamic bank financing instruments: Cross-country evidence from dual-banking systems. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 62(December 2019), 101292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101292
Sekaran, U. (2021). RESEARCH METHODS FOR BUSINESS (4th ed.). https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119111931.ch108
Shi, H., & Zheng, H. (2022). Spillover connection between oil prices, energy risk exposure, and financial stability: implications for the COVID-19 pandemic. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(52), 78683–78697. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21100-5
Sobol, I., Dopierała, Ł., & Wysiński, P. (2023). Is the profitability of Islamic and conventional banks driven by the same factors?—A study of banking in the Middle East. PLoS ONE (Vol. 18). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289264
Tok, E., & Yesuf, A. J. (2022). Embedding Value-Based Principles in the Culture of Islamic Banks to Enhance Their Sustainability, Resilience, and Social Impact. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020916
Zuhroh, I., & Rofik, M. (2024). How does global economic policy uncertainty affect Islamic bank performance? An exploration from heterogeneous sample. Banks and Bank Systems, 19(4), 246–257. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.19(4).2024.19
